Red Sox manager Terry Francona revealed yesterday that John Smoltz will pitch for the big league team next week while Brad Penny and Daisuke Matsuzaka stay with the club. How is this possible? The team will go with a “six-man rotation” for the time being.

This writer calls shenanigans on this six-man rotation. What Francona and management are really saying is that they are either waiting for a good deal in exchange for Penny or seeing what they can do with the struggling Matsuzaka. While it is likely that there will be six starts by six pitchers in six games, possibly twelve by the same six in twelve games, this so-called rotation will not last the team the rest of the season.

With strong starts against the Yankees last week and the Marlins tonight, Brad Penny has reemerged as a solid starter. While it is now indisputable that he is helping the Red Sox, he likely can help them more by being traded if they can use him to gain a prospect or stretch-run role player (e.g. a Dave Roberts in 2004). Such a move however would only make sense if the team can replace or upgrade pitching production from his spot in the rotation. The Red Sox luckily have John Smoltz returning to the majors and Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden annihilating AAA batters with Pawtucket.

Based on performance, Daisuke Matsuzaka who has appeared in seven games totaling 31 innings with a 1-4 record, 7.55 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and .372 opposing batting average, should be the one to lose his spot in the rotation, either by a bump to the bullpen or a trip to the DL. Keep in mind that Terry Francona gives his players a lot of time to work out kinks (see Kevin Millar, Mark Bellhorn, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia). Any move of Matsuzaka will not be immediate. Still, with Smoltz, Buchholz and Bowden, if it turns out that Matsuzaka is still fatigued from his WBC performance or just needs some time to work outside the majors, there is a suitable (probably better) substitute within the organization.

Before any move is made, the team must see what Smoltz can provide the team. If he’s done, then holding on to Penny would be the smart thing to do. Still, it is reasonable to believe that the team really saw something positive in Smoltz and truly expects him to contribute to make the deal and give him the rehab time. If Smoltz can contribute, the team then needs to assess the health of its current staff (the summer months are always good to put a pitcher on the DL) and its depth because there is always the chance that a starter other than Penny will get hurt.

There really is a dearth of available starting pitching for trade this year. Penny is a bargain for the remainder of the season and will be a free agent when the season concludes. Likely he will go to the National League–the Phillies and Mets have been mentioned in trade rumors, and the Brewers would be wise to trade for him. Since they really do not need anything (a shortstop would be nice but Penny cannot fetch one that would be an upgrade over Green-Lugo-Lowrie), the Red Sox can hold out trading Penny until another team makes the right offer.

Why not keep a six-man rotation? Because that would reduce the number of starts for aces Jon Lester and Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield who is having an All-Star season. It would also mess with pitchers’ heads as they are used to pitching after four days of rest and would suddenly get six. Plus– no other team uses a six-man rotation.

Prediction: Smoltz comes back solid; Penny is traded for a mid-level prospect. Buchholz spot starts over Matsuzaka and joins the rotation upon any other starter coming down with injury.