The Red Sox head to the Bronx to start a four-game series against the New York Yankees tonight.  The Sox are 8-0 in the season series with their rivals but trail them by 2.5 games in the division.  The Sox are also floundering while the Yankees are firing.  Still, there are reasons to be optimistic and they start with the starting pitching.  Match-ups favor the Red Sox.

Tonight John Smoltz faces Joba Chamberlain.  Smoltz is pitching less like his old self and more like a 42 year-old who doesn’t throw a knuckleball or take steroids.  He is also a right-hander with slowed fastball pitching against a lot of lefthanders in a park where check-swings can knock balls out of right-field.  Still, the Yankees counter with Joba.  Joba has three straight wins, but those are on the heels of starts in which he went 4.1, 3.2 and 5.1 innings.  In two starts against the Red Sox this season, he is 0-1 with a .344 batting average against in 11 innings pitched.  Also factor in that Red Sox ringer Victor Martinez is 2/5 against him and David Ortiz is batting .320 with 2 homers against the Yankees this season, further noting that much of his at-bats against them came in his early-season super-slump.  J.D. Drew is on another one of his hot streaks between injuries.  The Sox better hope for a bloodbath tonight because it is doubtful Smoltz will keep the runs off the board.  Still, Smoltz knows how to pitch and how to win a big game.

Friday is another Beckett vs. Burnett showdown.  This season the enigmatic A.J. Burnett is 0-1 with a 12.91 ERA, 2.74 WHIP and .382 batting average against in his games against the Red Sox.  Those numbers came in two starts totaling 7.2 innings pitched.  Josh Beckett, who is now in pennant-race cruise control, has not completely dominated the Yankees this season but in three start against them, he is 2-0 with a 5.82 ERA (most coming in his last duel with A.J.) with 16 strikeouts in 17 innings.

Saturday’s matinee on FOX features Clay Buchholz against C.C. Sabathia.  Buchholz has not faced the Yankees yet this season and has a 7.45 ERA and no decisions in his two career starts against the team from the Bronx.  C.C. pitched an ok game against the Red Sox earlier this season, going seven innings and giving up four runs for an 0-1 mark on the season.  In his career against the Red Sox, dating back to his Indians days and including the 2007 ALCS, Sabathia is 2-5 in eight starts with a 4.07 ERA.  Keep in mind the Red Sox right-handed lineup features Mike Lowell and Varitek and Victor batting from the right.

It’s Southpaw Sunday for the series finale with Jon Lester and Andy Pettite facing off.  Pettite pitched well against the Red Sox this season, going six innings and giving up three earned runs in his sole start against them.  In his career against the Sox, Pettite is 16-9 with a 3.72 ERA.  In 2008, he was 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA and .375 batting average against.  In two starts this season against the former Highlanders, Jon Lester is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA and .255 batting average against, retiring 17 Yankees by the strikeout.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox have added Victor Martinez but will likely miss Jason Bay for this series.  The Yankees return the same lineup against the Red Sox that they had earlier in the season.  One team may be slumping while another is thriving but that is the nature of baseball.  The Yankees also feature a stronger bullpen with the emergence of Phil Hughes as a setup-man.  Other x-factors include David Ortiz facing a fan-reception as vitriolic as he faced in the 2004 ALCS and the fact that being 0-8 against the Red Sox, the Yankees might also need to win their head games to beat the Sox in the next few days.